A Message From A Banker

by Joanne Proulx, Author

Ms Proulx has provided us with such a great insight, I have to share it here:

“Something some of you may not know. Way back when, before I ever thought about becoming a writer, I was a multi-national banker, working on the tippy-top floor of Royal Bank’s main office in Vancouver. It was a job that required a firm understanding of taxes and tariffs and interest rates and bond yields and currency fluctuations. Also I was supposed to know how to golf.

A refresher. Tariffs are taxes paid by the citizens of a country importing the tariffed goods. So it is Americans who will pay the 125% or whatever crazy number it is today that Trump has imposed on goods coming in from China. That much we know.

And I’m sure everyone saw how the global markets whipsawed yesterday, when Trump started then stalled his global trade war.

So a question. Why after claiming countries around the world were lining up to ‘kiss his ass’ (he is such a crass man) did he blink and postpone his beautiful tariffs? Why did he forgo the billions and billions of dollars that would flow from US citizens into the US government’s/his hands?

Trump is a hammer and believes the rest of world is a nail. He has deluded himself into thinking that other countries are powerless in the face of his nonsensical tariffs, which he claims to love but does not even understand.

America is a deeply indebted country, running huge deficits that are funded by the sale of Treasury securities (T-bills, bonds etc.). As of April 2024, foreign countries held $7.9 trillion in US securities. Countries like China, Japan, Canada, the European nations. Countries who have all recently been threatened with huge tariffs, and in Canada’s case economic warfare and annexation.

With $7.9 trillion of debt owing, anyone with half a brain would realize it’s not a great time to be pissing off the countries who hold the power to bankrupt you. When Mark Carney became prime minister, Canada held $350 billion of US Treasuries. It's believed that he brought this to Trump's attention during their one and only phone call, after which Trump was suddenly respectful, referring to Carney as Prime Minister and our beloved country as Canada. Imagine! As well, Carney has recently partnered with Japan, the second largest holder of US debt, with the stated intent of stabilizing world markets.

So back to the question of why Trump blinked. Yesterday, in tandem with the stock markets crashing, the market for US securities softened. Worried about the stability of the US economy and the country in general, fighting back against bludgeoning tariffs, other countries started dumping their US debt. To entice buyers, the US had to increase interest rates on those bonds. When you’re as deeply indebted as the United States is, the last thing you want is to be paying more interest on the trillions and trillions you owe.

And that’s why Trump postponed the tariffs. Mark Carney, along with other world leaders, pulled the US Treasury lever, caused interest rates on US debt to rise, and thus exerted their own financial power.

We do not live in a world of hammer and nail. We live in a world of connections, cause and effect, a ripple here, an earthquake there.

We Canadians are not powerless. We are smart and strong. Thanks Mark Carney! This Canadian is voting for you.

This is my take on the situation. Thank you for reading. Please read my follow up post for further analysis and thoughts.”

Thank you Joanne, this Canadian is voting for Mark Carney too.