The Decline of the American Empire

The cycle repeats

Every empire declines eventually.

Ray Dalio, author of The Changing World Order demonstrates that there has been a cyclical process to the rise and fall of empires. He goes back as far as 2,000-3,000 years to demonstrate that. Many historians and economists, including Ray Dalio, suggest that modern empires tend to last around 200–250 years on average.

Guess where America is? Year 249. And the decline is happening right on time.

It isn’t because of Trump either, he’s just a symptom. He’s the result of the decline. He will cause its inevitable final nail, but he didn’t start it.

That was started back in the 1970s and 1980s when key laws were put into place that changed the nature of companies, and froze the labor movement. A perfect example of this is the PATCO strike (Air Traffic Controllers, 1981) during which Regan declared the strike illegal, and fired over 11,000 workers when they refused to return to work. This specifically led to a cultural shift against labour unions.

Since World War II, which put the USA on the top of the heap economically and in control of the world GDP, the USA has participated in four wars: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Ukraine. In all of them, they failed to achieve lasting victory; while the conflict remains unresolved, and Russia has maintained key positions.

America held power because of nuclear weapons. But now, due to “mutually assured destruction”, they provide less of a deterrent that before.

War was good for the USA in the 1930s. It pulled the country out of the Great Depression. It gave jobless people a purpose, ‘go kill Nazis’, and the people left behind were put to work making uniforms and weapons. With everyone working, the US economy recovered, and the 1950s dream of “everyone owning a home” was within reach for many more.

But today, we live in a declining economy. There is more debt on everyone’s shoulders than ever before. Today’s solution to not having enough money is to get another credit card.

The credit card was introduced in the 1950s and it was initially offered as a convenient form of short-term credit that you paid off every month.

They became status symbols before morphing into instruments of debt. It was considered a sign that you were “making it”.

It wasn’t until 1966 that the first Visa or Mastercard plastic came into being. People wanted the ability to look like they could carry a card, but couldn’t afford to pay it off every month. So along came the ‘revolving’ credit card…. People were allowed to carry balances, and were charged interest.

That was manageable until people’s wages’ stopped keeping up with the cost of living. During the 1970s, several factors contributed to this: the oil crisis, increased international competition, the Vietnam War's costs, the decline of manufacturing, and a shift in economic policies. Those policies include the deregulation of certain industries and tax cuts to the rich.

Nixon was famous for his “Nixonomics” policies that ended up benefitting corporations and rich people. They were supposed to “stimulate spending” by cutting taxes. Probably the most significant thing Nixon did was to disconnect the US Dollar from the Gold Standard. It let them print lots of money without having a back up in bullion.

In 1971, Nixon called for a 90-day wage and price freeze. That helped inflation, but not for long. War is good for the economy, but losing a war isn’t. The U.S. couldn’t afford Vietnam, and the inflationary effects lingered well into the 1970s.

What came out of WWII was the belief in socialism. In the 1930s the government brought in pensions and social assistance. People had security. But the Cold War hit and everything from the “left side of politics” was bad — communist. The New Deal legacy, GI Bill, and European postwar welfare states, to give you some context.

The United States has battled with itself over these same arguments over and over again; fighting between taking care of their citizens to throwing them to the wolves in an “everyone for themselves” attitude.

In an age when social services are common in most civilized countries, America still wants to let everyone fail.

For me, it’s this attitude that ‘I’m not going to help anyone do better than me because I had to struggle’ is what hinders the society at large. In countries where socialism — and I mean a society that takes care of its young and old, its education, its health, and its development — is part of the fabric of their society, there are many more successful people.

All you need to do is look as your high-school knowledge of the “Hierarchy of Needs”. When people are not concerned about having a roof over their head, or food in their belly, or clothes on their back, they can expand their knowledge, and their role in society.

Perhaps the person who will invent the next huge thing is one who is homeless, and their rantings, who most think are crazy, are indeed revolutionary in the world of technology or science.

You don’t know what a person can accomplish as long as they have to worry about food, home, and basic needs.

Back to the decline topic. GDP is the measure of a country’s value in the world. It measures how much they produce for sale. Up until the past 10-15 years, the G7, of which the United States is a member, held the lead. They were the world leaders in manufacturing, trade, and finance.

That doesn’t hold true any longer. A new group, BRICS — a coalition of 22 countries led by Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — who want to get away from the dominance of the US Dollar as the reserve fund, now control 35% of the world’s PPP (purchasing power parity). While the G7 is down to 28% of the world PPP (source: Richard Wolff). That is a significant shift .

It’s because the US has borrowed so much money. Japan and China hold a significant portion of the US debt. As of 2024, they hold approximately $1.1 Trillion, and $775 Billion in debt respectively. Ouch! Much of the income tax US citizens pay now goes to “debt servicing” of those loans to Japan and China. Debt servicing means paying the interest and minimum monthly payment.

We’ve all been there on our Visa or MC. You look at the total each month, and say, okay, I can make the minimum payment. That is servicing the debt. It’s not paying it down, it doesn’t go away, you’ll be charged even more money next month. But it services the debt. The owner of that debt — in the case of Visa — makes money off you without raising a finger.

Right now, the US just prints more money … which is why it’s starting to devaluate. A year ago, the Canadian dollar was about $0.73/US dollar. We got 1.5% for every dollar paid in USD. Today, we get 1.2%, meaning the CAD is worth $0.80 USD.

Today there are more corporations in the same boat as the individuals with that credit card debt. They cannot service their debt either. They are called zombie corporations. They eventually have to lay off workers, or completely shut down due to debt not paid back.

What happens to people who are “zombies”? They lose their homes and end up on the street. So if you were wondering why the homeless rates are skyrocketing, that is why. They were so deep in debt, they couldn’t get out.

The United States doesn’t have manufacturing to help its citizens get out from under anymore. They long-ago exported that out to countries like Indonesia, who it turns out just joined BRICS.

Indonesia is a country of more than 17,000 islands and a population of more than 284 million people. That’s almost as big as the United States (340 million). Yet Indonesia is a country that manufactures every kind of product … and a lot of it is imported by the United States.

Like running shoes. Top brands highly sought after in America are made in Indonesia. The shoes you so highly covet that cost $500 were made in Indonesia for $10. Why are they so expensive? Greed and tariffs.

The United States no longer holds the top spot for technology either. China does. They produce the best EV for the lowest price in the world. Americans will never see them. The brand is called BYD. They are sold all over the world except North America. Why? Tariffs.

Companies like Ford and General Motors asked the US government 15 years ago to put a tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to protect their businesses.

So while the rest of the world enjoys inexpensive ($30K) luxury electric vehicles by BYD, Americans get to pay $60K for a Tesla. Yup, that’s a raw deal.

But it’s not just tariffs, debt, and lack of jobs that is heralding the decline of the United States of America. It’s the fact that nobody is doing anything. The rich are getting richer, why? Congestion pricing. It’s all about squeezing every single cent out of America that can be had.

Inflation is on the way up. Contrary to mainstream economists, some argue that strategic price freezes and wage supports are more humane and effective. But they want scarcity. Again, why? Because scarcity means that the rich can outbid everyone.

The rich don’t care if there is a shortage of eggs. They can afford to pay whatever the price is, and double it. Why do you think Trump hasn’t done anything? Do you really think he buys eggs?

As the rich squeeze everyone else from every angle possible: taxes, interest payments, higher prices, lower services, closing of institutions, more and more people are losing their jobs, their homes, getting sick, and dying.

This is a “bull” market. Scarcity of product causes prices to rise, which distributes the existing product to people with the money to buy.

What has to happen is a full-scale revolt. Labour has to revolt. People have to revolt. They have to unite and demand wages. They have to unite and demand jobs. It’s starting to wake up, but the leaders of the country are all rich billionaires. They don’t care about anyone else, and they are never going to lift a finger to help anyone else.

The entire society can devolve and dissolve, and they will still be around with their money. Which is why America’s empire is on the way out. The billionaires in charge are not interested in anything other than getting more money out of you.

America’s DENIAL of what is happening affects the other G7 countries, which is why they are moving to disassociate themselves from the United States of America as fast as they can. They’re making deals with those on the rise, China and Japan.

The only way out of the hole for American, is for the country to disenfranchise the rich and start taking care of its people again. Yeah, let’s hope that will happen.

Sources: Richard Wolff’s Decline of America Ray Dalio’s The Changing World Order